Why there are no iron laws of strategy

I get a sports massage sometimes. I cycle a lot, my legs end up in bits.

When someone gets their hands on my legs and makes it hurt, my legs feel so much better after.

Yet I have no idea why.

They used to think it helped blood flow. That's at best questionable based on what we now know.

They used to think it helped get rid of lactic acid. They now think lactic acid build up might be a good thing.

Probably, it's all psychological, but next year they'll change their mind.

In other words, it sort of works but no one really knows why. 

It's like looking at the rules of how marketing and brands work.

For example, in tracking, we seize on data showing that people who have seen a campaign also bought.  

Without checking if people already buy so naturally notice the brand's marketing. 

The received wisdom that 'trust' is the new barometer for brand health.

When Amazon is doing better than ever.

The shrill for TV as still the most effective medium (probably is).

Because so many companies that make up the data put all their effort into TV.

Then there's the endearing arguments over how brands should work.

Publicity, Disruption, the fake war between emotion and function. 

People are complex, markets are complex, life is complex.

So there really are not many rules that work.

Just as a football team that doesn't adapt their tactics for playing against different teams won't win as often. 

Apart from (in my opinion) make sure people remember and recognise you, remove reasons not to buy you, biggest barriers first.

So strategy isn't a science, it really isn't.

The same methodology used over and again will create different results. 

For the same client, let alone different ones.

Don't believe me? Look at any agency client list and case studies.

Rarely will you see case studies for all clients for every year.

Because they only show the stuff that worked. Not the huge proportion that did not. 

So, what iron law can you apply?

You can't.

There isn't the silver bullet to everything being perfect and working.

Your job is to make things less likely to go wrong.