"In my experience there's no such thing as luck". Obi Wan Kenobi.
I'm no Jedi Master, but while I only agree with Obi Wan's statement up to a point (the fact I haven't won the lottery proves there are exceptions to his rule), his approach has something going for it.
Take sport. The point is NOT knowing who will win, but you always know who has the biggest chance.
I can tell you that when I used to compete at swimming, while there were many variables affecting who won on the day, like how I slept the night before, a bad start, cocking up a tumble turn, and my confidence that day, luck had little to do with the result.
The same people tend to win more often.
It came down to talent, naturally, but then the overriding factor was how much you had prepared. How much training had gone in, the quality and specifics of that training and how much you had timed to peak for that race.
Luck, to be honest, was a minor player.
Of course, you'll be saying, what about sports with more variables?
It's less likely a golfer will win a tournament or a cyclist will win every race. Nevertheless, while the variables may have gone up for both sports, the pattern is the same. Some competitors tend to win, or at least place higher that others more often.
Ask Tiger Woods (about golf, not driving or relationships) or Chris Froome.
Allow for the variables and, once again, the real secret of success is talent and the right kind of training - the amount and specificity.
One more variable in both kinds of sports though, is innovation and tech. The competitors and teams that continually try new approaches and new equipment, win even more often.
When Team Sky first came on the cycling scene, everyone laughed at their fancy pants ideas, now everyone copies them.
Swimmers smashed world records when they wore body suits, some were way ahead of the curve on this.
So yes, hard work, specific preparation and willingness to innovate ahead of the curve.
Put another way, great players make their own luck.
So does a great business.
Firstly, for a bet to pay off, you have to actually make it.This is where the innovation bit comes in.
If you've read Why Most Things Fail (and you should) you'll see on the face of it, that most companies eventually fail, even titan FTSE 100 companies or whatever. Simply because economies are far too complex to predict, there are too many variables.
Because of bloody people.
Despite what many economists would like you to think, all markets are based on the the decisions of people and if there is one thing we know about humans, in the real world, not the theories and pen portraits, they don't decide on logic, they're horribly unpredictable and irrational.
Turns out the only chance you have is to constantly invest in staying ahead of the curve.
Trying stuff, creating behaviour rather than trying to predict it.
Companies that constantly innovate survive longer. Not because all their bets pay off, but because some bets pay off big.
The worse bet you can make is hope things stay the same, because nothing does.
There is no reason that Blockbuster shouldn't have become Netflix, except they realised too late that people would download movies online, even before the next leap that the content makers and delivery platforms could be interchangeable. Arguably, Sky in the UK is way behind Netflix and Amazon on this.
In fact, the fleet of foot can totally obliterate the big and powerful just by exploiting their cumbersome scale, infrastructure and culture. Barnes and Noble should have stopped Amazon in it's tracks, but culturally, couldn't get their heads around selling books online. Like most things, if you don't care about what you're doing, it won't work.
Love him or hate him, Trump became President because his opponents simply could not predict what he would do next. While they were busy trying to respond to his latest Tweet conventionally, he was on to the next hand grenade.
Just as, I believe, Adidas couldn't (and still can't) get their heads around Nike talking about the emotional truths of sport rather than just bland performance.
There's learnings in this for marketers when it comes to short term v long term.
First, think small no matter how big you are.
Second, stop worrying about short term and long term!!
To be basic, remove reasons not to buy, constantly refresh memory structures (we've all read the book).
We can do better though.
Just try lots of stuff, not just creative stuff, and see what sticks. The more you do what will confuse the competition the better.
I don't mean making it up though, there's a way to keep the others guessing while creating sure things.
The source material is easy, it's real life. For some reason, people in agencies and even marketing departments forget to be human when they do the job. Life is more interesting, complex, inspiring, scary and uplifting than anything else. The very best of our work remembers this and embraces it.
When life itself is so uncertain, up for grabs and fast, I think there's never been more opportunity to keep the competition guessing by simply losing your tin ear for what is really going on in the lives of the people who really decide the fortunes of companies: the people who buy their stuff.
But here's the rub. Coming back to long term training and input, always be building the brand.
The harder you work on this, no matter what, the better your luck will be. Perversely, even more when life is so fragmented.
When life is this changeable, there has never been a better time to genuinely build a big consistent brand.
Life is more complex, people have more to think about than ever, so surely it's a golden opportunity to be a brand that remembers what it's for - to help people NOT to think.
Let everyone else just chase clicks or think ONLY in weeks or quarters.
Be one of the smart cookies that can make lots of little things add up to a lot.
Create lots of little acts that add up to a bigger story while the dinosaurs spend months researching creative and cool kids focus on stunts that have little shelf life beyond a fleeting headline.
Just make sure you're addressing an actual business issues, not doing what is cool.
In other words, where are we now, where could we be, how do we get there and how did we do? It's the planning cycle, it's not new. It's just that rather than a cumbersome oil tanker turning around, it should feel like a Catherine Wheel.
Life Moves Pretty Fast (thanks Ferris). Keep up. I'm not sure brands can 'create culture' like they used to, but when culture us so fast, multi-faceted, porous and down right interesting, why would anyone feel they need to?
So, in in a world full of surprises these days, while I hope I've convinced you to think about creating surprises of your own.
However, there has also never been a better time to invest in the one constant you can - a brand with a big idea behind it.
The trick these days is to find a big idea that helps create lots and lots of stuff, rather than the old school version where the brand police kept everything the same for years, usually only thinking about 30 second films.
It's not easy, but those that can crack it will be very successful indeed.
I think Obi Wan had point. But maybe he should have said there is such a thing as luck, but mostly the same people tend to get lucky.
Put in the long term preparation, but never stop trying to push ahead and keeping an open mind on what's possible. Keep the others guessing.
To misquote Princess Leia, 'the more you tighten your grip, the more growth will slip through your fingers'.
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